Definition
Survey, in statistics, a method of collecting data in which people are asked to answer a number of questions (usually in the form of a questionnaire). An opinion poll is an example of a survey. The reliability of a survey's results depends on whether the sample of people from which the information has been collected is free from bias and sufficiently large.
Early Pioneer of Survey
George Gallup (1901-1984), American public opinion analyst and statistician. George Horace Gallup was born in Jefferson, Iowa, and educated at the University of Iowa. He was head of the journalism department at Drake University (1929-1931), professor of journalism and advertising at Northwestern University (1931-1932), and professor at the Pulitzer School of Journalism, Columbia University (1935-1937).
In 1935 he founded and became director of the American Institute for Public Opinion, and in 1936 he established the British Institute of Public Opinion. Gallup was a pioneer in the use of statistical methods for measuring the interest of readers in the features and advertisements of magazines and newspapers and for determining public opinion on general issues.
He extended his research to include the reactions of radio audiences and founded the Audience Research Institute in 1939. He directed research for many organizations, won numerous awards, and wrote several books. He is best known for the Gallup poll, public opinion surveys on politics.
General Acceptability.
Opinion polls are generally accepted as useful tools by business, political organizations, the mass media, and government as well as in academic research. Hundreds of public opinion polling firms operates around the world. Best known in the U.S. are the organizations, such as the Gallup Poll, American consumer opinion and Harris Poll, the findings of which regularly appear in major newspapers.
In business, polls are used to test consumers' preferences and to discover what it is about a product that gives it appeal. Responses to commercial polls aid in planning marketing and advertising strategies and in making changes in a product to increase its sales.
In politics, polls are used to obtain information about voters' attitudes toward issues and candidates, to put forward candidates with winning potential, and to plan campaigns. Polling organizations have also been successful in predicting the outcome of elections. In addition, by polling voters on Election Day, it is often possible to determine the probable winner even before the voting booths close.
Agencies use quantitative research to determine a final
Course of action. This type of research uses close-ended questions in which answers are selected from a set list. This enables the researcher to determine the exact percentage of people who answered yes or no to a question or the exact percentage choosing answer a, b, or c.
One of the most common quantitative research techniques is the survey in which researchers use a questionnaire to gain information from a large group of people, called a sample. Statistical studies show that if the sample is large enough, about 1,000 people, and is representative of a particular group (for example, working mothers who buy disposable diapers
Then the findings from the sample are considered true, or statistically valid, and can be extended to the entire group of consumers in that category. The findings provided by quantitative research are therefore conclusive in a way that qualitative research cannot be.
Newspapers, magazines, radio, and television are heavy users of public opinion polling information, especially political information that helps to predict elections or gauge the popularity of government officials and candidates. The public's attitude toward various social, economic, and international issues is also considered newsworthy.
Governments use opinion polls to tap public sentiment about issues of interest. In addition, government agencies use polling methodology to determine unemployment rates, crime rates, and other social and economic indicators.
Polls have been employed extensively in academic research, particularly in the social sciences, where they have been proven over the years.
Procedures
Public opinion polling involves procedures to draw a representative sample of the population under study. If, for example, one is studying the attitudes of all adults in the U.S., the survey organization would seek to draw up a list of the entire adult population of the country and then select at random a sample to be surveyed.
When proper techniques are used and the sample is large enough-1000 to 1500 people-the results obtained are likely to be very close to the results one would get if the entire population were surveyed. Thus, if 60 percent of the sample says it approves of the president's policies, statistical theory shows that if the entire population were surveyed, the probability is 95 percent that between 58 to 62 percent of the people would express the same approval as the sample. The criterion of excellence in a sample is representative, not size.
Sampling is vital to the validity of an opinion poll. In practice, however, sampling can be a complicated procedure involving a great deal of estimation and guesswork. The population to be surveyed usually cannot be precisely enumerated. Efforts must be made to break down the population into sampling units of approximately equal size. A certain amount of interviewer discretion is necessary, and complications arise when a proposed respondent is not at home, has moved, or is unwilling to be interviewed. Often only about two-thirds of the intended respondents are actually interviewed and give valid responses. When mail questionnaires are used, problems of no response are higher.
Great care must be used when fashioning the questionnaire or interview schedule, and testing the questions before using them in the field is always advisable. Ideally, questions should be short, clear, direct, and easily comprehended. Apart from such an obvious necessity as trying to avoid bias, many subtle problems arise in framing a question.
A word or phrase, for example, may mean different things to different people. In making a question simple enough to be understood by everyone, the issue may be so oversimplified that it has no meaning to the more sophisticated respondent. Sometimes the order in which questions are asked can affect the response. In addition, the tone or wording of the question may alter the measured response:
A study once found that the percentage of the public in favor of "forbidding" speeches against democracy was 16 points lower than the percentage in favor of "not allowing" such speeches.
Other problems can be traced to interviewer effects. Age, sex, class, or racial differences between the respondent and the interviewer can sometimes affect the respondent's answer.
Once the opinion data have been gathered, the analyst must seek to find meaning in the results, keeping in mind the problems of sampling variability, question-wording biases, and interviewer effects. The results are tabulated and analyzed using various statistical techniques to determine patterns. Much successful analysis involves comparison: comparing subgroups of the population as they react to the same question; comparing the results of surveys conducted at different times to discover opinion trends; and comparing the responses to different questions.
Because of comparison-based analysis, the survey often is divided into small subgroups for comparison-for instance, educated, politically active women with educated, politically active men.
Criticisms of Public Opinion
Criticisms of public opinion research come from a variety of sources. Many people simply are not convinced that the opinions of a small sample of the population are a viable representation of the opinions of the whole. On this matter, however, the polling agencies can point to the science of statistics and also to decades of experience from which it can be shown, for example, that the same question asked on two different sample surveys at the same time will almost always generate similar results.
Other criticisms deal with sample procedures that, for reasons of economy or expediency, sometimes use outdated population data or make compromises with rigorous statistical requirements.
Even assuming that the basic poll data are valid, analysis of the data may be casual and superficial. In some cases, the raw data are simply presented as the public's "opinion" on an issue without deep and careful analysis to probe nuance and possible bias.
The subtle influence of variations in question wording on the measured response is often ignored. In the political area, criticism sometimes focuses on the appropriateness of opinion polling, rather than on its validity.
It is argued that elected officials may be too willing to act on what a poll says their constituents think rather than deciding the issues on their merits. Some experts believe that polls may influence voters to favor certain political candidates who seem to be enjoying a notable popularity at the moment.
The information that a certain candidate is far ahead in the polls may discourage people from voting at all or encourage them to vote for that candidate and thus may affect the results of the election.
The importance of opinion survey base on valid statics data and careful analysis cannot be over emphasize hence it covers all aspects of our lives right from the time when survey taking was introduces a tools for measuring public perception on all aspect of human endeavor by the founding fathers and even now.
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